Burn Baby Burn - Fire Ecologist Celebrate Fire Season

"Life goes on though, and fires are not unnatural"

Margarethe Brummermann

Image - CNN

Annimated Graph - USA Today

The quote at the top of the post is from Margarethe Brummermann, Biologist from Dortmund Germany who resides in the Tucson area. She had written a post about Mount Lemmon which towers above Tucson to the north. I made a comment on her page about how my wife and I had driven up to Mount Lemmon last year May 2016 and how sad we were to see so much of the forest destroyed by wildfires. I made mentioned how I had first visited Mount Lemmon back in the late 1970s and there was hardly ever a scene where wildfire had damage anything. There was always the occasional snag here and there, but forests and even the high desert scrub were always able to recovery properly. That has all changed now. But her reply to me was simply, "Life goes on though, and fires are not unnatural." Her viewpoint is reflective of most all fire ecologists who champion fire as natural, yet often times have a hard time differentiating between human (especially if Native American) and lightning caused fires. Earlier this year, Fire Ecologist, Jennifer Balch, and other researchers revealed that 84% of all wildfires are human caused. Oh, but it get's even worse. They found that the actual figure for California, Oregon, Washington and on up to British Columbia in Canada is actually a figure at 90% human caused. So it question begs, is that something we should consider natural or unnatural ??? I only ask because humans today are considered unexceptional and nothing more than animals if you read the latest scientific literature on the subject. Don't get me wrong here, I don't believe anything as asinine as that. But it does reveal how an ideologically driven worldview can infect and distort the practice of Science and create ignorance as opposed to understanding. Historically, the majority of wildfires on Mount Lemmon have had a human cause. This has also exacerbated theproblem of  human introduced non-native, Buffel Grass, to invade clear up through the Saguaro Forests into the mid-elevation ranges of the Mount Lemmon. Here is that interesting finding regarding the human 90% origined cause of most wildfires at present.

Science Magazine: "Who is starting all those wildfires? We are"

Aaryn Olsson, University of Arizona

Last year when we traveled up the Mount Lemmon highway, we were greeted all along the way by an overwhelming sea of Buffelgrass which blanketed all areas of the Santa Catalina Mountains near Tucson. Researchers say warming temperatures and fewer winter freezes are helping the invasive plant spread, posing a threat to saguaro cactuses and other native plants. The Tucson Sentinel even had an article with a chilling title, "Arizona without Saguaros? As climate warms, desert's future uncertain." The Saguaros are such an iconic symbol of Arizona and the Sonoran Desert. But they cannot take wildfire. They have no protection against it. I can't hardly imagine them being eliminated permanently.

Grant Martin/Cronkite News Service

Bromus tectorum, an invasive species commonly called “cheatgrass,” grows in an area of the Coconino National Forest burned in a 1996 wildfire. I strongly dislike Cheatgrass. This is the invasive noxious weed whose stickers you have to pull out of your socks every so often down the trail when you go on a hike.

Grant Martin/Cronkite News Service

Researchers say this area of the Coconino National Forest, which burned in 1996, is decades away from returning to its native state, if it ever does. They say rising temperatures have weakened trees, raising the potential for devastating wildfires that will open the door to invasive species. Don't expect recovery anytime soon.

Image - Getty Images

I remember reading the fire ecology literature some time back in 2006. There was an account written by Arizona Historian Marshall Trimball of the old west in New Mexico, when a Cavalry Officer was complaining to his superiors about his men smoking cigarettes and dropping them along the trail as they all rode horseback. The problem was they were starting grass fires from their careless bad habit. Of course this was in the 1800s, when Indians still existed and practiced their ecological conservation with fire. Yet hsitorical writings from the 1800s relay that they used fires to war against their enemies. Not exactly eco-friendly. I know, it destroys the narrative. This 1800s is the time period for celebration for most fire ecologists who champion how natural the forested ecosystems all were back then because of Indians. But as I've questioned this before, if fire ecologists were looking at the world back then and telling us how natural wildfire played in ecology of all plant community systems, how did they reconcile white European Soldiers starting fires with their cigarette butts ? Was that a good thing for Nature ? How did this factor into their research of what was good for the plant community environment ? Native Americans generally get a free pass on why they started fires and they really shouldn't. See the post, Dances With Myths. But now what about the white man back then ? Today there is a movement to down grade human beings as not being so exceptional. Mankind is now being considered nothing more than animals equal to everything else. Does this now mean that the research on wildfire causes being 84% human fault provide us a new designation of the term, "Natural"   ??? 😲 Would it mean that humans carelessly throwing down a cigarette butt today should now be considered perfectly normal behaviour ??? 😟 We seem to be living in a time period of redefining everything from it's historical normalcy.

But what about all those heavy Rains 🚿 ??? Didn't things get better ??? 🌳

Image - Pismo Hotels

This year's rainy season of 2017, California experienced one of those unprecedented rainy seasons, after four years of serious intense drought. But everyone cheered Hooray 🙌 and celebrated with waving pom poms that all was well again in California again. The drought was now over, or was it. Indeed, heavy rains came, even to the point of major flooding events up and down the state. While there were some very clear catastrophic negatives, one of the great joys of all that rain brought out a spectacular display of wildflower blooms. Starting in early March, flowers popped up all across Southern and Central California and produced some seriously spectacular scenery. The photo opportunity didn't go unnoticed nor wasted by many of the non-profit eco-activist groups hoping to cash in on a fund raising opportunity by posting pics on their website's & Social Network pages indicating that Nature seemed to have rebounded from the jaws of death. Or you know, that old Jurassic Park Cliche (a phrase or opinion that is overused and betrays a lack of original thought) "Life found a way." Except that things really were'nt all that rosey as they advertised. First, some of the people were a little too anxious about getting out there first with they cameras. Then it appears that much of the water came in so fat and furiously, that most of it raced back to the Pacific Ocean like a bullet train. Some water did fill up many of the State's reservoirs, but the surrounding landscape didn't have great percolation into the hills and mountains. 

Roger C. Bales

Even Merced hydrologist, Roger C. Bales, who advocated & pushed for increased logging in the Sierra Nevadas which he claimed would stop water hog trees from gulping down precious water which would have otherwise ended up in streams and rivers causing reservoirs to fill for his agricultural buddies to use downstream (See the Modesto Bee article: Overgrown Sierra forests gulping water that could flow to Valley ), jumped up and down when the rains came. Why ??? Because now his story has changed. He now claims to have been proven right because the 130+ million dead trees caused by the out of control bark beetle outbreak didn't have a chance to suck all that water which ended up in the streams and rivers and filled all the reservoirs. This is a farce folks. The great lack of water over the past five years had zero to do with there being too many trees sucking & gulping all the water down and had everything to do with the State's worst mega-drought in years. It hadn't rained in those five years (or extremely little rain coupled with high Temps) and with or without trees water eventually won't run in creeks, streams and rivers to fill reservoirs. Even a child gets that. I knew this from viewing early on all the photographs of dried dead invasive weeds and not all that long after the flowers died that the drought was not over. Now look where they are over there with heat waves and no more rain. Plus as indicated at the top of this post, lookie where we are now with the 2017 Wildfire season stats. So have things really changed for the better ? Nope, same old same old. 😏

Look, I refuse to celebrate and worship fire as some kind of animist Creator the way most fire ecologists worship it. Yes fire has always existed and is a reality in the natural world and can be used as an excellent tool for correcting problems along with other management tool like thinning forests in any ecosystem if done properly. And I've actually done that. But mostly humans have misused and abused fire, even the so-called experts. Prior to 2006 I never read much of anything about the science discipline of fire ecology, although I worked with people in the US Forest Service back in the 1980s who did prescribed burns. But I've also fought them tooth and nail against many of their ideas which are complete failures when it comes to reforestation techniques. Take the Fire Ecologist insistence that fire is needed for the wild seed germination. For example, Tecate Cypress is one of those trees in which Fire Ecologist have insisted for decades needs fire in order to propagate itself. Prior to reading their literature, in all my 30+ years of outdoors exploration experience and seed collecting, I never found this to be true of Tecate Cypress. There are numerous circumstances under which the seed is dispursed or spread and germinates fine without the need of fire within old growth chaparral which hasn't burned in a couple of hundred years. Same with Arizona Cypress. Fire is not always necessary, but you cannot tell them this. Science is not supposed to be about working in a Lab and venturing outdoors once in a while on a couple token field trips to make the research look legit. You have to live outdoors with nature. Look, I am not credentialed. I have no alphabet soup initials behind my name, nor some fancy coveted title before my name. Thank God. That allows me the freedom of not being shackled to a dogma and infected by the worldview biases and flawed presuppositions common to the Scientific Orthodoxy's industrial business model. I'm just one of 6+ billion people on Earth subjected to the negative consequences of inept decision making from a world leadership which has been weighed in the scales and found deficient. But it's allowed me to view things from a periferal viewpoint as opposed to tunnel-vission. 

Image from H. Armstrong Roberts/ClassicStock

BTW, here is an example of Prairie Fire and a Steam Locomotive, 1872, whose smoke stacks belched cinders (pre-spark aresters) and started numerous prairie and forest fires in the days of the old west. Wonder if that was ever factored into the fire ecologist fire is a creator research ??? This video below from China's still operational locomotives servicing coal mines just question begs, "Do fire ecologists who insist that  fire is a natural necessary healthy component of plant ecosystems ever factor in human stupidity as part of that natural component mechanism ???" I know I know, because the Indians did it! 😕

Fire sparks of Steam in Sandaoling Coal Mine Railway China

References I've written for seed germination, not entertainment, just practical real world application and fun:

Seed Germination & Old School Ideology vrs How Nature Actually Works

How do ecosystems regenerate when Fire is absent ? Aw, the possibilities!

Breaking News: Fire Ecology Updates, Bird digestion aids Seed germination & Ed Morgan deserves an Acquittal

What We Need Here is Wildfire to Propagate !!!

Santa Lucia Coast Range & Big Sur California: An Environmental Wreck ???

While news reports have focussed on Nature, the real spotlight should be aimed at human mismanagement of the region, from the region's land management policies right on down to the average land owner

Image from YouTube

Image - nbclosangeles.com

This iconic image above is of Bixby Creek Bridge along central California's Big Sur Coastline. This region is one of the prettiest gems for which tourists are attracts people to visit California. This bridge is probably the most photographed feature on the Cabrillo Highway (Route 1) in California. But the area has also had a long troubled history infrastructure issues here along this coast highway. During this past year (2016) it has been a tough time to for visiting tourists and even tougher challenge if you are a local permanent resident or business owner. For almost a year they have been isolated completely from the outside world. First, there has been a long period of drought, with this region listed on maps as being far above the rest of the state's "severe" & "extreme" designations to the high rating of "exceptional." As time went on, that extreme designation on the map spread, but has always been exceptionally bad between San Francisco & Santa Barbara in the coastal mountin ranges. Second, there was the  Soberanes Fire (& multiple other fires) which started on July 22nd 2016. On August 2, officials announced that their investigation found that the fire had been caused by an unattended illegal campfire. While no suspect was identified, Monterey County District Attorney Dean Flippo said that, if an arrest were made, the culprit could be charged with negligence and manslaughter. Yeah that's right, someone died. And finally third, after 5 years of intense exceptional drought, this past 2016/17 record rainy season brought the mud and landslides. Bridges gone, roads collapsed and massive slides of whole mountainsides coming down obliterating everything in it's path. Now while Nature certainly played a role, it's often the lack of foresight in planning and critical mistakes in decision making during the crisis which exacerbate these problems which has a domino effect later on. In this particular post (Part I), I'll mainly focuss on the Soberanes Fire & human error.

Image by Stan Russell - The Big Sur Blog

Looking north from Soberanes Point about 10:30 PM, 7/23/16
Working its way down steep canyons towards Highway 1

This fire at it's very beginning blitzed through an area I had first discovered back in 1985 called Palo Colorado Canyon north of Big Sur which is well hidden from most outside tourists unfamiliar to the region. Locals know exactly where this area is. This place was a beautiful hidden paradise when I first found it back in 1985, but it's mostly gone today. My second trip there in 2014 which you can read from the link above, I also wrote about an amazing phenomena from this region where streams and rivers still ran even after years of exceptional drought. The question was why ? Especially since I did point out the numerous dead trees I saw first hand back up in that canyon in 2014. In 1985 there were no dead trees. But there are a combination of two natural components that allow streams and rivers to flow here even without normal winter rains & absence of summer monsoonal rains that the interior part of the state experiences and that would be Hydraulic Descent & Fog Preciptiation which is the very reason water sources are so dependable here. But human error changed all that. Here is a blog account and discussion by locals in the Big Sur area about the problem of illegal campfires on June 30th 2016 just a couple of weeks before the July 22nd 2016 Soberanes Fire. 

Xasauan Today Blog - Because Nature Bats Last

Image - Xasauan Today Blogger

The Campfire Conundrum 

"On a Sunday walk along the Pine Ridge Trail during Level IV fire restrictions in 2013, we looked at dozens of fire rings and couldn’t find a single one that hadn’t been used the night before."   

"Level III fire restrictions are currently in effect in the Los Padres National Forest. This means that all wood and charcoal fires are completely prohibited outside of a few designated Campfire Use sites (in designated car campgrounds). Smoking and recreational target shooting are similarly restricted. Lanterns and stoves may only be used with a Campfire Permit."   

"This isn’t a secret. Signs informing the public that campfires are prohibited abound. In spite of this, and in spite of the fact that fire danger is obviously quite high, campers light dozens of fires along Big Sur’s backroads and trails every single night."  

"What gives?  My guess is that it’s a function of the same human failing that prevents us, in so many contexts, from seeing how seemingly harmless individual behavior can have a devastating cumulative effect. The campfire builder likely perceives, correctly, that there is little chance that his or her fire will be the one to cause a conflagration. After all, it’s probably fewer than one in a thousand illegal campfires that becomes a wildfire. To these campers, the suggestion that they are endangering life, property and forest resources seems uptight and exaggerated."

Follow the rest of the story and comments section discussion about the potential for disaster (HERE) and keep in mind that three weeks later that devastating Soberanes wildfire started and burned for four months from July 22nd thru October 28th when it was declared 100% contained with only some hotspots still to be dealt with in the fire perimeter. But this wasn't the only damage done to the area. Despite heroic efforts by firefighters, much damaged was done by the Bull Dozer construction of Fire or Fuel Breaks along almost every major ridge, even some impossible access areas on the edge  of wilderness. And these were not just one or two bulldozer blades wide fire breaks, these were often 5 or 6 blades wide or more. Admittedly this is a tough wild extremely steep rugged impossible canyon terrain. But the problems they created in attempting to stop the wildfire will be with this area for a long time to come.

Image - Big Sur Kate Blog

Well, you can google more Bull Dozer fuel break cutting work on the Soberanes Firelines and many more done far away from the actual firelines in anticipation of the fire breaking out and making big runs which quite often did happened. There were so many big equipment companies called to fight this fire that the region in some places looked like an all out war preparation by a German Army Panzer Division. Maps at the time showed an extensive networks of bull dozed fireline roads everywhere which seriously did look like Battle Plan maps and I suppose they really were. But the real damage here was to the underground mycorrhizal grid and infrastructure of both native tree and chaparral root systems which took centuries for this part of the natural world to construct. An Absence of the mycorrhizal grid will be a major invite over the next few years for non-native noxious weeds to grab a foothold which will eventually become permanent residents into this once pristine untouched landscape.

Image - Cal Fire San Benito-Monterey Unit

Crews work on putting in control lines for the Soberanes Fire
 near Big Sur, California in this August 4, 2016

 (Vern Fisher - Monterey Herald)

Bulldozers work on a fire break in the Rancho San Carlos area
 of Carmel Valley while fighting the 23,568 acre Soberanes Fire
 on Wednesday, July 27, 2016 just five days after the fire began

(Vern Fisher - Monterey Herald)

A private contractor dozer operator works a fire line
 west of Cachagua in August 2016

 (David Royal - Monterey Herald)

Panzer Divisions Dozer Crews cut a containment line on
Daniel’s Ridge east of the Old Coast Road as firefighters
battle the Soberanes Fire in Big Sur

Photo from CAL FIRE

The dozer that rolled over on the Soberanes Fire in 2016,
killing Robert Reagan

"Both a private contractor and the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection (CAL FIRE) were issued citations by California’s Division of Occupational Safety and Health (Cal/OSHA) related to a fatality when a dozer rolled over. Robert Reagan, 35, of Friant, California, was killed while fighting the Soberanes Fire south of Monterey, California July 26, 2016."   

"Minutes after Mr. Reagan began operating the piece of equipment for Czirban Concrete Construction on contract to CAL FIRE, it rolled over. Not wearing a seat belt, he was thrown from the cab and was killed when the dozer rolled onto him."

(Source; wildfiretoday.com)

Sadly the Army of bull dozer operators used to stop this wildfire and save property owner dwellings not only took it's toll on the environment, but also one bull dozer operator's life. Often times and especially in terrain like this, many firefighters are asked to do impossible tasks at the risk of their very lives. I've previously written about and voiced my opinion about firefighters having to risk their lives for people who have built buildings on property with impossible death trap access. The image below I watched on television Live in May 2014 where wildfire in San Marcos, California in 2014 which moved towards one hilltop Mansion which was surrounded by more than a dozen giant dead Aleppo Pine trees in the homeowner's landscape. Nobody should be made to risk life and save that and homeowners who choose such locations should accept the inevitable. You can read that post below here:

Image - NBC San Diego

Should Firefighters be expected to save Homes which are located in fire trap geography and where the owner cared less about landscape hygiene ?

After any Wildfire the Burned Area Emergency Response (BAER) assessment would have conducted a survry and an implementation clean-up & repair work would be on-going for perhaps months. 

Inciweb.com

Excavator moving previously cut vegetation to cover fireline.

inciweb.com

Excave placing vegetation material on fireline

Inciweb.com

Working on suppression repair

Inciweb.com

Brush and cut vegetation from suppression repair work.

After it's all said and done, this is the result of clean-up repairs. Areas where the wildfire were untouched are repaired from a human eye-candy appeal point of view where brush is placed on top of the fuel break scar to hide it and provide some measure of runoff control with the next seasons winter rains. What they don't tell you and probably most of them are ignorant of or if the know, view it as trivial, the mycorrhizal fungal network grid which previously supported native chaparral and trees has been erased and obliterated under the ground. The scar is now ripe for take over by non-native invasive annual grasses and other noxious weeds which were generally kept in check by the former fungal network, but now that this has been removed, a bacterial soil system has replaced it and this scenario is what annual weeds will thrive under. Some scars will be left untouched like this once below from the Sherpa Fire. It will be viewed now as a strategic fuel break for fighting future wildfires. But given some months it could later look like older historical fuel breaks which are densely weed infested and will move future wildfires along more rapidly. Like this one below in Southern California.

Inciweb.com

West Camino Cielo Fuel Break, Los Padres National Forest

Image - Chaparral Institute

Trabuco Ranger District of the Cleveland National Forest
fuel break along the ridgeline of the Santa Ana Mountains

Other victims in nature weren't so lucky to escape. An irreplacable world record Pacific Madrone is gone forever 

Photo: California Department Of Fish And Wildlife

Image - Mine 2014

Pacific Madrone
(Arbutus menziesii)

The largest madrone tree in the United States in 2007 (left) and in 2016 (right). The tree, located in Joshua Creek Canyon Ecological Reserve in Monterey County, was severely burned in the Soberanes Fire. A giant in Big Sur registered as the largest of its kind in the nation appears to be a casualty of the devastating wildfire. Madrones really have no defenses against wildfire other than resprouting from the trunk base after being burned up. They have a very thin bark much like that of a Manzanita. Even when they get older and have the characteristic rugged bark like the old growth one above, they are no match for a wildfire. Most likely in youth this one above was burned and resprouted from the truck. This is proven by the fact is has multiple trunks. I've photographed young Madrones in Palo Colorado Canyon and they will start out as a single trunked tree. Much like the one on the right that I photographed in 2014. But once burned, that single trunk Madrone becomes a multi-trunk resprout from it's stump's base. Sadly though this time around, the Soberanes fire was just too hot and appears to have burned down deep into the rootsystem and surrounding soil.

Image - Dr Aljos Farjon

Santa Lucia Fir (Abies bracteata)

The other potential for wildfire victim here is the highly restricted habitat belonging to the Santa Lucia Fir or Bristlecone Fir (Abies bracteata) which is endemic to the central California Coast Ranges. Many of the largest known pocket woodlands of Santa Lucia Fir at various locations (particularly Ventana Wilderness) were effected by both wildfire and Forest Service backfires. But even still at this time there has not been a lot of assessment on the conditions or status of this Santa Lucia Fir in some of the remote regions. Perhaps this year will change that. The other danger for all plants which endure an extreme or rather in this case "exceptional" drought designation for four or five years is at the end of that period trees will have produced less seed/cones (offensive strategy) as opposed to putting all it's resources into survival mode (defensive strategy) for the adult tree itself, so that when a fire does come along and wipes a forest out, there is very little release of seed resources to counter the damage caused by the catastrophic event. This goes with every tree and shrub caught in the middle of massive unprecedented drought followed by wldfire. Change could be permanent and sometime irreversible. So time will tell. This particular tree has been hit hard by previous fires in the past, but again we will have to wait and see. 

Some Local Blogger References for Central California which are far better than Main Stream Media Outlets

Big Sur Kate's Blog: Big Sur News & Events – Road Conditions & Fires

Xasauan Today Blog - Because Nature Bats Last

And what about the next big bit of bad news ??? 

And Finally the Rains Came and Deluged all of Californnia!

ABC 10 News January 2017

I won't spend any time on this portion of the ongoing disaster to this region. That will be in my second post. I mainly focussed here on Nature and what has taken place, although it has to be acknowledged that many many homes and commercial buildings were lost which devastated the human population here. But the misery and inconvenience continue and it's still not over. But maybe there is some good news as far as infrastructure repair if anyone out there is paying close attention. Stay Tuned!

Big Update: While Palo Colorado Canyon seem to be spare numerous Wildifre, January 2022 is a different story. Imagine wildfire season starting in a January

https://www.montereyherald.com/2022/01/22/wildfire-in-palo-colorado-causes-residents-to-flee/

Millions of dead/dying trees have nothing to do with Climate Change ???

Bark Beetles Decimating Forests as Industrial & Eco-Activist Ideologues scramble for position on who owns the "Science" ??? Don't hold your breath that both sides will soon be holding hands singing 'Oh Lord Kumbaya"  and "We are the World" in celebration of  a viable "Climate Change Solution" anytime soon!  

2 Timothy 3:1-5

But know this, that in the last days critical times hard to deal with will be here. For men will be lovers of themselves, lovers of money, boastful, haughty, . . . unthankful, disloyal,  , , , not open to any agreement, slanderers, without self-control, fierce, without love of goodness, betrayers, headstrong, puffed up with pride, , , , and from these turn away." 

 Yup, that just about sums up the disfunctional times we  live under today.

Illustration by Bill Mayer

I just read a great post by John Ikerd of Fairfield Iowa who writes about sustainable economics and particularly on agricultural subject matters. But he wrote a piece about how there really is no such thing as scientific consensus and why that is true. Ever notice that all sides of any debate always insist that they have the prevailing *cough-cough* settled science behind them ? So at the very beginning of his post John Ikerd poses a few relevant questions about science in his opening paragraph:

"Do you ever wonder why scientists can’t seem to agree? Why do nutritionists reach different conclusions regarding the risks and benefits of eating fats, carbohydrates, red meats, eggs, and sugar? Why did it take scientists so long to reach a consensus concerning the causes of climate change or the health risks of tobacco smoke? Why do competent economists disagree about causes of and solutions to just about any economic problem that arises?"

For the most part those are very interesting questions. Like other human endeavours when it comes to leadership and authority [Politics, Business, Religion, Etc], why should Scientists be any different than any other average human being in positions of authority ? They're not. They are as equally flawed as any other human being on this planet, despite the fact that they often blow their own trumpet about personal qualifications. He goes on further to say this:

"With respect to environmental problems, such as global climate change, the first principle of ecology is that “everything is interconnected” – you can’t do just one thing. So by definition, ecological causes and effects cannot be isolated. It is impossible to isolate the human contribution to greenhouse gasses from contributions of soils, oceans, on other animals because human activity affects everything else on earth and everything else affects human activity. Again, addressing the problems of global climate change will affect just about everything, and the economic stakes are enormous."

"The data necessary for social and economic studies inevitably reflect the choices of people. People are not machines. They do not all make the same choices and don’t necessarily repeat the same choice and actions over time. People are continually trying to solve old problems and exploit new opportunities. As they do, their choices, actions, and reactions change. Scientists are also people. It’s impossible for scientists to isolate their particular worldviews and belief systems from their scientific observations and conclusions, particularly when those observations involve other people and their conclusions effect their Professional $ucce$$." (emphasis mine)

JOHN IKERD.COM - Solving Wicked Problems

Yes, varying ideological beliefs or business fortunes do tend to colour whatever version of science you want to believe. In the whole history of science there has never been any such thing as neutral unbiased science from any side of a matter. Now fast forward to a group of ideologues who claim to have the 'real science' behind their opposition to climate change. The group is from the site, "Watts up with That?" [created by major climate change denier, Anthony Watts] and as per their usual modus operandi poked fun at climate scientist like Michael Mann who honestly stated that people shouldn't need climate computer models or scientific data to inform them something is wrong with the Earth's climate mechanisms. He stated that everyone should be capable of observing it for themselves that something is radically wrong with the Earth's natural forces regarding climate disruption.

Alfonso Bedoya in The Treasure of the Sierra Madre.

“Fundamentally, I’m a climate scientist and have spent much of my career with my head buried in climate-model output and observational climate data trying to tease out the signal of human-caused climate change,”

Yeah okay, you've all heard about these Climate Scientists reliance on computer models ? I remember back when this subject first hit the proverbial fan and the earliest created climate models said things would be irreversible within 100 years. Then the following year things were updated, corrections were made and it was going to be 75 years, then 50, then 40, 30, 25 years etc. Now in the latest News Reports many are saying we are now past the point of no return. But do people really need computer models by scientists to tell them something is seriously wrong ? Do you really need volumes upon volumes of data to tell you something isn't quite right with Earth's environment ? Unfortunately climate change computer models are always tentative, which basically means they are subject to change without notice pending newer discoveries.  

Climate Change: Should we put our trust in Computer Models ?

Well that appears to be the conclusion of Climate Scientists Michael Mann in this next paragraph taken from his speech and he is correct. The average human being doesn't need the so-called sophistication of computer science to reveal to them things they should be clearly observing with their very own eyes.

“What is disconcerting to me and so many of my colleagues is that these tools that we’ve spent years developing increasingly are unnecessary because we can see climate change, the impacts of climate change, now, playing out in real time, on our television screens, in the 24-hour news cycle,”

Climate Scientist - Michael Mann

The above quotes and commentary from Michael Mann make perfect sense. But most people are out of touch with their surroundings or the dangerous times we are living in. Hatred of another side's political worldview blinds many people to the real issues and the natural world itself couldn't care less about the belief systems from the Fundies of either side. But the evidence for disruption is all around us. I dare say that many who do understand the scope of climate disruption also have no clue as to the massive scale of the problem out there in the real world other than what they read about in Media or on Social Networking sites. Take this year's fire season which every year continues getting worse. Many blame the dead trees, others say no that has nothing to do with it. But facts are, the photographic evidence is everywhere, even if you do not personally visit such forest sites of mass dieoffs. The ecology problem is all due to failed leadership when it comes to land mismanagement resulting from uninformed Science policies which are  shackled to industrial business interests. Criticize any of this and you are labeled as being Anti-Science, which is a coward's way out of accepting responsibility.

Image - Inciweb.nwcg.gov

The report from the Inciweb explains that the Beaver Creek Fire is burning in heavy beetle killed timber. The infested trees are subject to blowing over with large amounts of down timber, making the forest unsafe for firefighters. For the safety of firefighters, the Incident Management Team is allowing the natural process of the fire to occur while focusing their resources on the property values at risk. This suppression strategy apparently has provided for both firefighter safety and the protection of life and property. It's also allowing the elimination of the dead and dying trees which will hopefully come back, but that looks unlikely as there is not really any viable seed being released from cones of dead trees. That process is far different than when live trees with healthy viable cones open up after fire blows through to reseed the area destroyed. Even planting bare root stock will be ineffective if normal rainfall patterns do not return.

Image - Inciweb.nwcg.gov

This is an image of the massive beetle killed trees which are mostly Lodgepole, Fir etc. They have smaller needles which fall off easily and quicker. And they have died by the millions in the interiors of North America. But most photographs do not capture the true immensity of just how massive a scale and widespread the problem really is.

Image - Inciweb.nwcg.gov

The U.S. Government's Incident Informaton System (Inci-Web) has posted the above photograph to illustrate the scale of the problem in fighting the Beaver Creek Fire in Colorado's Routt National Forest on the border with Wyoming. Many shout it has nothing to do with Beetle killed trees. Yes green trees and dead trees burn equally well given current weather anomalies. But these kills are not normal kills as past historical outbreaks which were always localized. This scenario plays out all across the globe. So the strategy in fighting this fire is to allow it to burn and protect only human infrastructure. The natural forest infrastructure which regulates and moderates climate is effectively dismantled and nonfunctional here. No amount of fungal spores are going to create rain clouds and save the day. While I love the subject of mycology, contrary to promotion, they are not going to save the universe. The entire healthy system works together as a functioning whole. So allowing this dying forested system to burn is not destroy anything that isn't already gone. Still, many don't or won't grasp this.

Photo: Craig Kohlruss

These large patches of dead and dying trees in the above photograph are in the Sierra Nevada mountains are viewed from a helicopter back on December 2015. Mostly Ponderosa and Sugar pine trees are dying off in large numbers around Bass Lake and throughout the Sierra Nevada due to a bark beetle infestation brought about by four years of extreme drought in California. Now we are going on a year five. The dead conifers in California are different from those in the Rockies that we saw from the Beaver Creek Fire which have smaller needles which fell off easier. The Ponderosa Pines seem to keep their dead needles for two or three years. So fires blitzes very well through such materials. The debate however is ongoing in how to manage these dead trees. Leaving them or logging them will change nothing. The forests of the Sierra Nevada Mountains will not return unless the climate machanisms normalize and that is unlikely. Chaparral plants will replace these forest trees and like the pine beetles, they will be blamed for the loss of forests. Lousy land management and terrible industrial Science policies will get a free pass as usual. 

Image - Arborwell

Photo - Pail Chinn

AGRICHEM - Phosphite Product

Of course pines and other conifers are not the only trees dying by the thousands in California. The west coast is being hit hard with Sudden Oak Death (SOD). Pictured here in the photo above (clockwise from top left): dying oak tree, several Sudden Oak Death affected trees and bleeding kankers on the trunks of an Oak tree. And believe it or not, their answer is not doing anything about the cause, but rather more synthetic chemicals to kill the nasty insects as Park Ranger, Tracey Walker, for the City of San Diego Open Space calls them. While I understand the sentiment in blaming the insect for the sudden oak dieoffs, it's the overall misuse and abuses of scientific innovation shackled to big business and political interests which have brought us the present global climate disruption. This has completely changed the environment which in turn has triggered epigenetic responses within the spotted oak borers, pine bark beetles, etc. They are only responding to changes in the environment. Any checks and balances they once were subject under have now disappeared or in some way been altered. Humans are ultimately to blame, but that's hard for most people to swallow. Even for many in the environmental crowd who believe correction comes from saving land from development and creating eco-green rules enforced by a type of socialists police state brutality will not be the answer either. But the fact remains that humans have brought down the environment when they didn't have to for the economic good. And any solutions you keep reading about deal only with treating symptoms and offer nothing as far as stopping the cause. They're using the same failed business strategy as human healthcare models. If no money can be made on the fix, then it's abandoned. The simple fact is, many things should be corrected not because of making money, but because it's the right thing to do.

Finally, don't expect any Improvement or help from differing political ideologies, both are happily wedded to their Industrial Agricultural business interests who keep them in power.

Image - Miami Herald

Well, you've all heard about the big joke down in Florida of it's waters being likened to green guacamole ? Apparently it's industrial agirculture [sugar industry] which is the original cause of the pollution. Over decades they have dumped millions of tonnes of science-based synthetic fertilizers and other chemicals into Lake Okeechobee and other waterways. Both political sides are at fault here if you read the latest Miami Herald article and nobody can finger point or spit vitriol at the other side's ideology or worldview. They're the mirror image of each other. Seriously, read the article and appreciate how disgusting both sides really are here in this. Take a look at the article's title and these subheadings, then click the link and read the article.

Sugar’s decades-long hold over Everglades came with a price

The industry spent more than $57 million over 22 years to influence Florida campaigns   

Records show Big Sugar was consistently one of the largest contributors to both Republicans, Democrats

Industry’s clout helped it to transfer clean-up costs and postpone deadlines

(Source: Miami Herald)

And finally here is an aerial view of several vast locations throughout the Sierra Nevadas

The video below is of an aerial fly over of major sections of the California, Sierra Nevada Mountains and miles upon miles of dead and dying trees. It looks like almost 74% to 80% Beetle kill. Both the Timber Industry and Environmental Eco-Activists lose this one here. Both sides are at fault for supporting a system of human rule which allows for this scenario whether or not one thinks they are immune from responsibility. There are no winners, only losers. Nature loses too. Four years of extreme drought which actually followed decades of irresponsible decision making in land management. In those four years very little seed was likely produced and if any was released during that time period, then there was little annual moisture to sustain the seedlings and saplings. At this point there is no seed for regeneration. 

The News doesn't get any better from what reports are saying about the long term effects of deforestation. If all the bad decision making and stupidy of actions were to stop right now forwards, the Earth is already past the point of no return in the healing process. What's scary is that knowing this, we also know things will not change anytime soon. Here is a July 29, 2016 Update:

"Even if people completely stopped converting tropical forests into farmland, the impacts of tropical deforestation would continue to be felt for many years to come. That's the conclusion of researchers who have used historical rates and patterns of tropical deforestation around the globe to estimate the resulting carbon emissions and species losses over time."

The main character to blame here is Industrial Agriculture, controlled completely by the power obsessed Biotechnology and Agro-Chemical Corporations. Next time they call you an Anti-Science Luddite for critizing them, start showing them the evidence. And remember, you DO NOT need any Scientist to give a seal of approval to be on the right side.

Science Daily: Effects of past tropical deforestation will be felt for years to come