Saturday, October 27, 2012

Why So Many Hurricanes This Year? Blame the El Niño 2012 'No Show'

So El Niño 2012 'no show' caused this ?  - (Source:)
Before the beginning of this hurricane season, back in May, forecasters thought this year would be an average one. Come august, when the season typically peaks, forecasters notched up their outlook, saying the season would in fact be busier than average.
Now it's October and it's been and it's been one of the busiest seasons on record,  with 19 named storms so far this year, 10 of which became hurricanes, including Hurricane Sandy, which has the potential to strike the east coast.
That puts the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season in rarified company. Only seven seasons since 1851 (as far back as hurricane records reach) have seen 19 or more named storms. Three of these have been within the last decade: 2010 and 2011 seasons had 19 storms, the most on record, including Hurricane Katrina. 

Originally the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted there would be nine to 15 storms this year. Then, in August, it upped it's prediction to 12 to 17 named storms, with five to eight of those becoming hurricanes. (Storms are named once the attain tropical storm status - defined as a rotating, organized storm with maximum sustained winds of at least 39 mph [119 kph] )
It's relatively unusual to have more storms than forecast, said Gerry Bell, the lead hurricane season forecaster at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. So why has this hurricane season been busier than expected ?
The underestimate can be blamed on El Niño, Bell told OurAmazingPlanet.  Or rather the lack of El Niño. Forecasters predicted that this climate pattern, characterized by warm surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, would have developed by now and stymied hurricane formation by it's influence on the atmosphere. But it hasn't. 
Blame it on El Nino 
Bell said the hurricane forecast represents how many storms there are likely to be, within a 70 percent probability. In recent years their forecasts have been 95 percent accurate, he said.
This year, cyclone activity has continued longer than expected in the Atlantic, unperturbed by El Niño, which spawns high-level winds that stream eastward and can disrupt the swirling motion that gives developing storm it's power, Bell said.
"There was a strong indication that El Niño would form in time to suppress the peak of the hurricane season and El Niño just hasn't formed yet," he said. 
Other climate factors also played a part in this year's season, as well as some of the other busy seasons.
The main reason for the recent abundance of cyclones si that since 1995, the Atlantic Ocean basin has been in the warm phase of a cyclical climate pattern called the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, with hotter-than average surface temperatures throughout the tropics and subtropics, Bell said. This pattern lasts for about 25-40 years, and comes with more hurricanes than it's "cool" phase, he said. Warm water helps hurricanes form and fuels their strength.

 In addition, in the past few years there has been a strong West African Monsoon, which creates disturbances in the eastern Atlantic that can turn into cyclones (the generic name for hurricanes and tropical storms), Bell said. There's also been relatively weak wind shear in the tropical Atlantic where cyclones form. Wind shear is a difference in wind speed or direction between high and low atmosphere, which tears apart developing storms. Wind shear is the main reason El Niño hampers cyclone formation.
One thing that is likely isn't to blame for the increase in hurricanes in recent years is the global warming, Bell said. Many climate models suggest that increased temperatures could actually lead to fewer, but stronger, hurricanes worldwide, he said.
It's Been An Unusual Season Indeed!
In other News, X-Files Conspiracies Theories are on the rise about Hurricane Sandy and the November Presidential Elections - Who do the people behind HAARP really want elected- oh brother !!!
YAHOO NEWS: "Hurricane Sandy as the October Election Surprise"

cartoon by

Could Hurricane Sandy be Weather Modification at Work?
Hmmmmm, here's what I think is really going to happen based on the official weather news on station  WTVR - CBS 6 in Richmond Virginia, weatherman Aaron Justus provides the last weather forecast you will ever need. In order to get the full flavour of the report, make sure your Aluminum Tin Foil Hat is firmly affixed to your thick skullcap.


  1. I think the Mid-Atlantic states were spared this summer from the hurricane activity. SANDY will be the first one that is coming close and will be meeting up with a cold front coming from the west. So we are due for a lot of rain and winds. It is being called a FRANKSTINESTORM for Halloween. It is all the news channels are talking about, stores are running out of supplies and they have people spooked. I feel safe where we live far enough from the shoreline, but the rivers and creeks might become lakes. And I am hoping our electric stays on, it is just a wait and see now.

    1. Yes, even if you are far enough away from the coastal areas and perhaps not up in the higher elevations where some expect more than a meter of snow to fall, those low lying areas and any water course can turn into raging rivers. Add to that fallen and destroyed trees and other vegetation debris, any number of river or stream channel can clog and create flood back up that may not go away for weeks.

      Hopefully everyone stocked up on food supplies and other emergency necessaries to ride out this storms for which the after effects could be weeks if the Infra-Structure is heavily damaged and it looks like it will be. It's not like this thing is sneaking up on folks as in historical times past. There has been plenty of advanced warning, but the nature of people is to wait to the last minute before doing anything. Then they expect Government to bail them out. Yet ALL historical precedents point towards an ongoing government failure to provide for and protect the majority of it's citizens. Before people started demanding Government take care of everything in life's stresses, it was Families and Nieghbours who pulled together and created a sense of secure community. In our modern day Secular ideologically obsessed times where traditional values have been trashed in favour of a more so-called enlightened view, I believe many have forgotten what once existed. As more generations come on board, less and less people will even remember such sense of community. Can you imagine the chaos which will be created when ALL of the technological gadgetry goes down ? People will be forced to have a real life again!!!


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